My political and strategic analysis - published in ‘The National’ newspaper in the UAE - of the truly horrific events unfolding in Israel, the scandalous failures that left Israel open to this slaughter, and the future implications for Israel and the Middle-East.
The key points:-
1. The timing of Hamas’ attack are so easily identified, making the surprise achieved all the more unconscionable: one, months of Israeli and Palestinian violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem, as Israel’s most right-wing government pushed policies that angered Palestinians; two, Israeli government ministers’ visits to Saudi Arabia as it seemed a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal was in the works – a nightmare scenario for Hamas’s backers in Iran; three, Iran’s desire to seek revenge after numerous Israeli intelligence successes against it in recent years, including many inside the country; four, the 50th anniversary of the 1973 war; and five, a Jewish holiday that also was Shabbat/the sabbath - exactly the timing chosen for the attack in 1973.
2. On the strategic side, Israel’s huge loss, and Iran’s huge gain, is that this kills the Saudi-Israel normalisation deal (at least in the short-term).
3. The potential that Israel will now reassess military action against Iran and its nuclear facilities. If Iranian intelligence played a key role in what is being called ‘Israel’s 9/11’ Israeli leaders may feel now is the time to hit Iran, and hit it hard.
4. PM Netanyahu and the far-Right’s security credentials - the foundation of their political platform and legitimacy - have been shattered. Major political change, when this is taken together with the judicial reform controversy etc, is now inevitable. Whether it hurls Israel further to the right, or in a very different direction, we will have to assess once the fighting stops and ‘usual’ (what ever that means in Israel) politics resumes.
5. In the long-term however events may develop in a way that could surprise many. The 1973 Yom Kippur war led Israel to reassess its strategic reality and the status of the land it had taken in 1967. And the Arab world grudgingly had to accept that even when Israel is knocked down, it is very quickly back up fighting. This resulted in the previously unthinkable land-for-peace deal in 1979, Egypt’s recognition of Israel and the return of the Sinai Peninsula to Cairo. In time, the 1973 “defeat” thus led to the strengthening of Israel’s security and regional status rather than the diminishing of it. This latest tragedy demands similar introspection and the questioning of Israel’s political direction of travel - might today’s intelligence and security failures lead in time to equally dramatic changes in Israel’s strategic outlook?
Link to article - War with Gaza could lead to a new strategic reality for Israel
Link to - LinkedIn post and discussion